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3 credits
Spring 2026 Lecture Upper DivisionThis course provides comprehensive coverage of a wide range of advanced short-term actuarial analysis techniques including severity and aggregate models, parametric models' estimation and selection, parametric and empirical credibility, and reserving, pricing for short-term insurance coverages. This course prepares actuarial students for the SOA Exam ASTAM: Advanced Short-Term Actuarial Mathematics.
Learning Outcomes1Understand and apply methods for modeling severity and aggregate loss distributions, including creating new distributions and comparing tail behaviors.
2Analyze the impact of coverage modifications and inflation on loss modeling in insurance.
3Estimate parameters using the maximum likelihood method and assess the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for a function of parameters.
4Select models based on graphical and score-based approaches and perform goodness-of-fit tests.
5Evaluate credibility concepts, including limited fluctuation credibility, Bayesian credibility with conjugate priors, and Buhlmann and Buhlmann-Straub models.
6Apply techniques for estimating unpaid losses, incurred but not reported (IBNR) losses, and project losses using trend analysis, as well as calculate overall average rates, rate changes, and risk classification differential changes.